Economy
The Employment Situation for October 2024
The latest economic release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the U.S. added an impressive 254 thousand new jobs last month, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.
October 7, 2024

Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from September 2024 that was published in October 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a point for a second straight month, dropping from about 4.2% to 4.1% after inching up for the 5 consecutive prior months.

The payroll figures were even more impressive, with over 250 thousand new jobs added through September, beating estimates of 150 thousand jobs by nearly 70%. 

The number of unemployed people essentially held steady at about 6.8 million which is up approximately half a million people from where it was 12 months ago when the unemployment rate was 3.8%.

Interestingly, the number of people who were jobless for less than 5 weeks fell by more than 10% down to 2.1 million, while the number of long-term unemployed was essentially unchanged at 1.6 million, which is up slightly from 1.3 million at this time last year. 

The food services and drinking establishment industries were responsible for the largest portion of the 254 thousand jobs that were added last month, netting almost 70 thousand additional workers over the course of September, which is almost 5 times the monthly hiring rate that food services and drinking establishments have averaged over the last 12 months.

The healthcare industry added the next most net jobs  last month at 45 thousand, although that figure represents underperformance relative to the 57 thousand jobs that the healthcare industry has been averaging for the past year. 

Government payrolls increased by about 31 thousand jobs, while the social assistance and construction industries each saw their ranks grow by about 26 thousand. 

No industries saw a significant decrease in jobs throughout September while the remainder of industries including natural resource extraction, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, information, transportation & warehousing, finance, and business/professional/other services all remained essentially unchanged.

Average hourly pay spiked by 13 cents last month, jumping to $35.36 per hour and representing a 0.4% increase over the month before. Average hourly pay has increased by 4% over the last year, which is two-tenths of a point higher than it was in last month’s report.

The average workweek, on the other hand, increased by another tenth of an hour down to 34.2 hours per week.

Mployer’s Take

Just over 2 weeks ago, the Federal Reserve announced the long-awaited 50 basis point (or half percent) cut in the benchmark interest rate, which is the first rate cut since 2020.

With those rates still around 5% however, another rate cut before the year ends remains possible at this point - especially in light of inflation in consumer prices hovering at 2.5%, just over the Fed’s long-stated target of 2% - but the strength of this of this jobs report has probably reduced the chances of another rate cut in the next few months.

From an economic perspective, it is hard to find much to complain about in this data, and the long-sought soft landing that the Fed has been aiming for appears to be coming to fruition.

Looking at the political perspective given the upcoming election, the strength of this report would certainly be welcome news by any incumbent candidate who can fairly claim some credit, and that may be increasingly true the closer we get to Voting Day.

As it turns out, however, this particular jobs report won’t be the last to arrive in advance of the election, as the November report covering October’s data will come out on November 1st this year, which happens to be the last Friday before ballots are cast on Tuesday, November 5th. 

The strength of this jobs report is undeniable, but the contents of next month’s report may ultimately be significantly more influential. 

Check out the Mployer blog here.

Financial Benefits
Why Employers Should Care About Employee Financial Well-Being
Employers are providing more support to encourage the personal financial security of their employees in light of just how much financial wellness can affect health and productivity.
July 20, 2023

Conventional wisdom once held that an employer’s concern about the personal finances of their employees should extend no further than the issuance of timely paychecks and retirement account management.

As more information has become available regarding how much financial wellness can affect a person’s anxiety, health, concentration, and family life etc. - which in turn can have significant impacts on company operations, efficiency, and productivity - there has been a noteworthy shift in thinking as to just how much attention employers should pay to the finances of their employees. Accordingly, modern companies are for the most part quite knowledgeable on the significance of employee financial wellness, with human resources professionals serving a particularly important function in constructing, promoting, and supporting company-wide wellness efforts that emphasize financial health and security to the benefit of employers and employees alike.

Some of the main areas of concern with regard to employee financial health are personal financial management, retirement savings, and debt/obligations. The proper balance and management of these factors can reduce stress levels, increase well-being, and even improve job satisfaction as employees are able to focus more on making a positive contribution through their work instead of being preoccupied with money shortfalls.

Research shows that worrying about financial issues can have a depressing effect, both in terms of employee psychology and engagement/productivity on the job. By alleviating some of those financial concerns through the provision of education, tools, and support to better manage financial problems, HR departments can help employees re-engage with their work and improve their efficiency and concentration by removing one of the primary distractions and obstacles that is getting in their way.

Further, offering comprehensive benefits packages to encourage and promote employee financial well-being can not only proactively work to help prevent some employees from experiencing financial distress and/or hardship in the first place, but thorough financial wellness benefits offerings can also serve as a point of differentiation from the competition when it comes to attracting and retaining talent. In addition to providing meaningful resources and services that can assist employees with practical concerns, the mere act of offering these kinds of benefits reflects a company that cares about the plight of employees beyond the bare minimum and underscores the supportiveness of the environment. 

Including financial wellness offerings within employee benefits packages can also have the added benefit of lowering healthcare expenditures. There is a direct correlation between financial stress and health issues - including the development of chronic conditions, which often result in significant health expenditures borne by both the afflicted employees as well as their employers. Even relatively simple programs that teach employees better budgeting, saving, and debt management practices have been determined to reduce health care spending overall, which provides an opportunity for HR professionals to make another meaningful impact toward the business's bottom line.

Beyond enabling a more focused, healthier workforce that delivers increased earnings through improved efficiency and requires less medical care, employee morale may be the biggest remaining beneficiary of comprehensive financial wellness benefits. Believing that their employer is invested in their well-being in ways outside the paycheck-for-labor exchange can help instill genuine loyalty in employees and improve job satisfaction in ways that can have impacts exceeding recruitment and retention efforts. These kinds of efforts can go a long way toward building cohesive, cooperative teams that are more inclined and better equipped to undertake initiatives that improve the company’s position and provide a significant competitive advantage to the organization as a whole.

Clearly, with so many positive results that can be expected from taking an active position in fostering the financial wellness and security of employees, employers have good reason to have abandoned the more traditional ‘hands-off’ approach and are reaping many benefits - both concrete and more abstract - as a result.

You can read more about this topic here.

Employee Benefits
How to Get Creative With Employee Benefit Packages
Approaching employee benefits package composition from a variety of different perspectives can lead to some fresh, outside-the-box thinking and give your company a competitive edge.
July 19, 2023

In a recent piece published by startup-focused, European media company Sifted, the chief marketing officer for a mental wellness platform offered some interesting ways to conceptualize employee benefit package composition and ideas where to best incorporate creativity and outside-the-box offerings into the mix, in addition to providing some creative examples. 

According to Sancar Sahin, CMO and Co-founder of Oliva Health, there are three categories of employee benefits that companies need to be thinking about.

The first category is the foundational tier benefit offerings, which should ensure that employees are productive and in good health. If an employee isn’t able to properly function at the required level because of disability or illness - whether bodily or mental - that can obviously have reaching and sometimes compounding effects into that person's and the company’s ability to operate. 

The range of offerings that fall within this category of benefit is quite large, including both many of the core offerings that make up most benefit packages like access to healthcare and psychological services, as well as other benefits that can significantly help facilitate employee health and/or productivity, like comprehensive child/senior care support and providing healthy snack options in the break room. 

The second category of employee benefits to consider are those that further instill and/or reflect company values, like schedule flexibility and professional development opportunities, which underscore employee autonomy, employer trust, and a commitment to continuous improvement and growth on behalf of both parties.

The third group of benefits are the kind that allow employees to thrive beyond just fulfilling expectations, optimized to help them achieve both professional and personal goals. This third category of benefits is often the best place to get creative and explore ideas/perks/benefits that may be less common or untested. 

When it comes to creativity, of course, coming up with a good idea is typically easier said than done, which is why it’s often a good place to start with an existing idea and tweaking it to better meet your needs and/or repurposing it in a different context to achieve a different aim altogether. 

Some of the examples of creative employee benefits that were highlighted in the piece are broadly applicable and could be easily incorporated into existing benefits packages, like ‘pawternity’ leave, which is one brewery’s practice of giving employees one week of paid leave once during the course of their employment to take care of a newly adopted rescue animal. 

Other examples of creative perks from the article are a bit more specific to the company that devised them, like the e-commerce brand that awards employees who stay with the company for 15 years by giving them busts of their own heads delivered by the company’s newest hires. While that kind of quirky gift and ceremony is not so easily transferable to a company where it didn’t organically grow from an inside joke, it serves as a reminder of the value of leaning into the cultural touchstones that naturally arise out of your own company culture. 

While there is no way to guarantee the generation of a creative idea when it comes to employee benefits strategy, of course, utilizing this framework to conceptualize your company’s employee benefits strategy overall and seeking out creative benefit and perks ideas that help employees thrive in their work and personal lives is a great place to start, whether borrowing good ideas from outside the company or formalizing organic ideas that are generated internally.

You can find that piece and read more about this topic here

Compliance & Policy
Momentum for Mandatory Paid Family & Medical Leave Continues To Build
Minnesota has become the 12th state (including Washington DC) to enact mandated paid family and medical leave, and Maine appears to be close behind. 
July 18, 2023

Minnesota has become the 12th state (including Washington DC) to enact mandated paid family and medical leave, and Maine appears to be close behind. 

Joining California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Washington DC, the new bill out of Minnesota will go into effect beginning in January of 2026 and will be overseen by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. 

The policy will apply to both full-time and part-time workers, although there are some limited cut outs and exceptions. Eligible employees can attain these benefits in the event they find themselves dealing with certain qualifying issues, including serious medical problems, parental leave, family emergencies, safety concerns, and other situations that meet the statutory criteria.

Employees that satisfy all the requisite conditions are able to receive up to 12 weeks of paid leave for each type of leave that may apply to them, though total paid leave available under the law is capped at 20 weeks in a full benefit year.

Under the system constructed by Minnesota’s legislature, employees will receive payment on a weekly basis. Those payments will be calculated as a percentage of their average weekly pay based on each employees’ average number of work hours and pay rate during the highest quarter of historical data during which each employee’s baseline wages and work hours were measured.

The percentages applied to each employees average weekly pay are as follows:

  • Eligible employees can receive 90% of their average weekly pay that doesn’t exceed 50% of the average weekly pay across Minnesota as a whole;
  • Eligible employees can also receive 66% of their wages that fall between 50% and 100% of the average weekly wage in Minnesota; and
  • Eligible employees can receive 55% of of their wages that exceed 100% of the state’s average weekly wage

As for premiums, for Minnesota employers that participate in both the family and medical leave enrollments, the premium rates will be 7%, although that figure will be lower for employers that participate in only one of the programs supplemented by an approved private plan.

In Maine, on the other hand, enacting paid family and medical leave is still a work in progress, but the effort appears to be on track via Legislative Document 1964, which makes it possible for qualifying employees to take as many as 12 weeks of paid leave per year. 

The triggering events and conditions that allow for leave under the proposed law are pretty broad, as is the definition of family, which should make the ultimate application of the law fairly flexible compared to some other states’ efforts. 

The methodology for calculating wage payouts under the law is a bit simpler in Maine than Minnesota, though Maine does require employees to have met a certain earnings threshold over the previous 3 months in order to qualify. Employees that meet all the required elements will receive 90% of their average weekly wages. 

In the meantime, while Minnesota continues preparations for implementing these new policies and Maine presumably continues making progress toward enacting similar ones, Oregon and Colorado have already begun collecting deductions from payrolls in order to fund their own family and medical leave policies that go live this year and next year, respectively.

Which state will be the next to make a significant push toward mandatory paid family and medical leave remains to be seen, but with nearly a quarter of states already there or well on their way, the momentum is clearly in these benefits favor. 

You can read more about these developments here

Financial Benefits
Department of Labor Tips for Retirement Benefit Cybersecurity 
The Employee Benefits Security Administration has put together a number of tips for employee retirement plan sponsors and participants to minimize their cyber vulnerabilities.
July 17, 2023

Lisa Gomez, head of the Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration, authored a blog post published on the Department of Labor’s website last week that outlines a number of tips for employee retirement plan sponsors and participants to minimize their cyber vulnerabilities.

The first advised course of action is to register your accounts online to enable virtual monitoring of the assets, which may be somewhat counterintuitive since doing so would seem to increase exposure to cyber attack on its face, but the net effect is a greater degree of protection overall. By regularly checking in on their accounts through an online portal, plan holders can quickly assess any activity they encounter that appears suspicious. In fact, not registering your accounts online opens the door for criminals to fraudulently assume your identity by registering your account as their own. 

The second recommendation is simply to regularly change passwords on a schedule (e.g. every 6 months) to increase password strength generally, which is basic but effective and far too often overlooked by people who should know better given that the top two most common passwords at some of the world’s largest companies remain “password” and “12345” according to a recent analysis. Passwords should be a combination of at least 14 characters made up of letters, numbers, and symbols - it’s best to stay away from words that are in the dictionary while reusing passwords across many sites is frowned upon, as well. 

Along similar lines, another simple but necessary and often neglected action that can significantly increase the effectiveness of your cybersecurity efforts is to enable two-factor authentication, which adds exponential protection relative to the small amount of inconvenience and lost efficiency that comes with adding a second step to login protocols, which can include fingerprint scans, verification text messages, or confirmation emails.

Further, when it comes to accessing those retirement accounts online, it’s wise to avoid doing so via public Wi-fi networks - which can be infiltrated by criminals - and instead access accounts via cellular service on a smartphone or tablet or via private/secure internet connection.

Regardless of how secure a users account access points and internet connection may be, of course, no cybersecurity measure can fully protect against human error when it comes to susceptibility to phishing scams or other fraudulent tricks designed to dupe people into unwittingly handing over information and/or the means to access an account or its contents. In addition to avoiding messages from unknown or unexpected sources - especially if they include any link that seems at all suspicious or contain bad grammar or gratuitous spelling mistakes - best practices should include installing and regularly updating antivirus software and relevant patches. 

And finally, it’s important for users to make sure that they have reviewed and know how to report a cybersecurity breach or identity theft in the event that they or their companies fall victim to a cybercrime, but it’s also important for users to ensure that their contact information stays up-to-date in the system of the platforms through which they access their accounts and that they have notifications turned on in the event that the user needs to be reached quickly in order to minimize any damage that may be caused by a cybersecurity breakdown. 

You can access the Department of Labor post and read more about this topic here.

Employee Benefits
This Month in Benefits: DEI in a Post-Affirmative-Action College Admissions Era
Last month, the Supreme Court decided that schools like the University of North Carolina and Harvard were in violation of the constitution’s Equal Protection clause as a result of their express, affirmative-action inclusive admission practices. Many questions still remain, however, in terms of how the practical impacts will play out in admissions offices and on campuses, as well as how far this ruling will reverberate into race-conscious corporate hiring practices. 
July 17, 2023

Last month, the Supreme Court decided that schools like the University of North Carolina and Harvard were in violation of the constitution’s Equal Protection clause as a result of their express, affirmative-action inclusive admission practices. Many questions still remain, however, in terms of how the practical impacts will play out in admissions offices and on campuses, as well as how far this ruling will reverberate into race-conscious corporate hiring practices. 

One significant distinction between race-conscious admissions and race-conscious hiring is that they are governed by two separate sections of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, with admissions being addressed in Title VI and private employment practices falling under Title VII.

Also, while the ruling was constructed narrowly so as to apply only in the academic and educational admissions context, if a similar interpretive framework were used in addressing the Title VII question of race-conscious hiring, similar results could reasonably be expected. 

To that point, it’s worth noting that some of the same groups who supported the process of striking down affirmative action in university admissions have opposed diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives and have been filing complaints with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission against some of the country’s biggest employers, claiming bias in their hiring practices. Depending on how the EEOC and the involved companies respond, of course, those complaints may very well find themselves working their way through the court system sooner than later.

So what kind of changes might be in store should the Supreme Court elect to hear a case about race-conscious hiring? In the majority opinion on the college admissions case, the Court effectively overturned a previous case from 2003 in which that iteration of the Court validated the University of Michigan’s consideration of race in the admissions process “as one factor among many, in an effort to assemble a student body that is diverse in ways broader than race.”

According to the new rule, college and university applicants “must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual — not on the basis of race” although in writing the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts did allow that schools may consider how race may have influenced the applicant’s experience and character. 

While DEI initiatives aren’t necessarily seeing the level of investment from companies that they were back in 2020, and recent waves of layoffs are disproportionately impacting DEI workers, building an inclusive workplace remains an outwardly stated priority for many companies both as a reflection of company values and as means of obtaining the advantages that can be derived from diverse collaboration. 

Given recent developments, it’s very possible that these very diversity-minded hiring practices are going to be challenged in the courts in the next few years, in which case companies that want to actively seek out diverse hires may have to start doing in short-answer and essay formats right alongside the colleges and universities, which is something that may be worth spending some time thinking about in advance.

Economic Outlook

New Jobs/Unemployment

The US added 209 thousand jobs last month, which is a positive number despite reflecting a bit of a slowdown from the last few months. 

The unemployment rate dipped back down by a tenth of a point to 3.6% after having made a three-tenths of a point jump up the month prior following the more than 50-year low of 3.4% unemployment registered in April. 

Job Openings

The number of job openings fell to 9.8 million in May (the most recent data available) - down from 10.1 million the month before in line with the general trend.

The total number of hires was slightly larger in May (6.2 million) than in April (6.1 million), with the hiring rate climbing from 3.9% to 4%.

The Northeast was the only region that saw a drop in its hiring rate (-0.1%) to 3.3%, while the South and West both registered a 0.1% increase (to 4.5% and 3.7%, respectively), while the Midwest registered a 0.2% increase in hiring rate, which rose to 4.1%.

Separations

The separation rate ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.8%, and total separations increased by about 211 thousand to 5.9 million. 

The quit rate rose a couple of tenths of a point to 2.6% and increased by about a quarter million job quitters to a total of 4 million quits over the month.

The layoff and discharge rate held steady at 1%, matching the previous month’s figure of 1.6 million. 

Inflation

Inflation is at its lowest point over the last 2 years, with a year-over-year increase of just 3% from June of 2022 to last month. 

In fact, when relatively volatile food, energy prices are excluded from the calculation, core inflation is at an annualized rate of about 2.4%

It’s also worth noting that these figures are down markedly from the 3.8% average annual inflation that the US clocked from 1960 through 2022.

Employee Benefits

Uncaptured Benefit Value

Over the last couple of years, employers have been offering more comprehensive and varied benefits packages, but as more and more offerings have become available, however, employees have become more likely to overlook some of the potential perks and benefits package components.

According to research from The Hartford, 70% of employers believe that employees are not effectively taking advantage of the benefits packages, and estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics predict that employees could effectively increase their salaries by 30% if they were optimizing the benefits that are already available to them. 


Motivating Remote Workers

With the proportional balance of employees shifting away from in-office workers, managers in many industries are finding themselves on somewhat unfamiliar ground when it comes to managing remote workers.

These are 5 potential ideas for better motivating remote workers:

  • Set goals that are achievable. The fastest way to burn out your remote employees is to ask too much of their time, which can be more difficult to gauge with off-site work;
  • Establish a clear incentive program. Well-constructed incentive programs can not only reward meaningful contributions but can also help clarify expectations and priorities;
  • Enable two-way transparent feedback. To grow within their roles, remote workers need regular evaluations of their work and outlets through which they raise issues/questions;
  • Include praise and recognition among regular feedback. It’s important to recognize achievements and contributions made by remote employees that incorporate in-office employees as well, and vice versa;
  • Encourage breaks and leave. Employers are well-served by expressing clear support for remote employees to utilize sick leave and mental health days as needed.


Working Moms

Mothers are leaving jobs and in some cases exiting the workforce at a quickening pace, with 25% identifying as stay-at-home parents, which is up 10% from the 15% who identified as stay-at-home parents in the 2022 survey. In total, 18% of respondents had left their job or the workforce entirely within the last year.

Given that more than 40% of women who left their jobs (or the workforce in general) did so either to be with their children or because they were unable to find childcare, it’s no surprise that the best way to entice these job-leaving mom’s back to your company (or the workforce in general) is to increase schedule flexibility according to almost 2 out of 3 respondents (64%). 

More than half of respondents (52%) also cited access to affordable childcare as a top factor that could make returning to work eminently more feasible. Access to affordable childcare is a major consideration for mothers currently in the workforce, as well, with nearly half of the respondents relying on outside childcare in order to meet their work demands and 63% paying for more than 30 hours of outside childcare per week.

Well-Being Program ROI

About 9 out of 10 companies that invest in wellness programs see a positive return on that investment, which is comparable to the expected rate of positive ROI on other benefits such as health insurance coverage. 

Not only can businesses expect direct savings that exceed wellness program costs more than 90% of the time, but about 85% of respondents attribute their investment in wellness initiatives to lowering recruitment expenses and reducing employee absences for sick leave.

Rising Wages

Average wages have increased 4.4% so far this year, which is significantly up from the average 3.1% increase reported in 2021.

Survey forecasts are expecting a slightly lower increase of 4% in 2024, so there does appear to be some ebbing here, though the vast majority of employers (70%) still anticipate pay raises next year to be at or above the same level as this year, while just 14% are budgeting for lower year-to-year pay raises.

Most Popular Benefits - Summer 2023

This recent piece from Forbes highlights some of the most in-demand employee benefits at the moment, including:

  • Insurance coverage such as disability, life, accident, and health with dental and vision;
  • Retirement benefits and anything that promotes financial security;
  • Flexibility with work schedules and leave;
  • Professional development, training, and education;
  • Mental and physical wellness support;
  • Family benefits;
  • Housing-related support and legal assistance

The Cost of Unused Sick Days

A recent study from BambooHR determined that nearly 9 out of 10 American workers have knowingly come to work sick just within the last 12 months, and almost half of those employees who came to work sick did so on more than one occasion over the course of the year. 

At the same time, 3 out of 4 operational managers have suspected an employee was abusing their sick leave, and more than 8 in 10 HR managers have shared that same suspicion.

Legal/Compliance

Heat Safety Standards

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is collecting data and conducting research into heat-related illness and injuries that occur on the job and will be hosting Small Business Advocacy Review Panels this summer in order to bring together commercial and governmental representatives to share their insight and experience in the process of honing the new standard to best achieve the desired results. 

While experts from a wide variety of industries are certainly welcomed and encouraged to attend and provide input, the most-sought-after insight involves the industries where heat exposure illnesses are most common and dangerous, such as agriculture, landscaping, construction, manufacturing, warehousing, oil and gas, utilities, waste management, and food services - particularly restaurants with hot kitchen working spaces.

Cybersecurity Policy Renewal

A medical practice in North Carolina had submitted what it believed to be all the necessary paperwork in order to renew its cybersecurity insurance, but the policy lapsed just two days before the company suffered a serious ransomware attack. 

Given that recovery from the attack cost the practice more than $300 thousand on top of nearly $700 thousand in lost revenue while their internal systems were out of operation, the practice is now suing their insurance provider for negligence in failing to inform them of the lapse in coverage with sufficient notice to prevent it.

One cybersecurity expert claimed that the depth of infrastructure analysis and risk assessment required before a policy can be issued or renewed would have made it unrealistic to renew a policy with such short notice, and any accidental lapses/gaps in coverage, as a result, can instantly become extremely costly mistakes.

Tech

Cyber insurance Market Growth

2022 was a banner year for the cyber insurance market, which saw premiums grow by 50%, bringing the size of the total market to $7.2 billion. 

Much of that growth is a direct result of improved underwriting practices which resulted in better loss ratios, which decreased by 23 points from 66% to 43% on standalone policies and by 18 points on packaged policies, falling from 66% to 48%.

AI for Insurance Brokers

When considering AI and its potential impacts, it’s important to recognize some things that AI can not do well, which currently includes strategic thinking, negotiation skills, and the ability to establish relationships that are based on trust and mutual benefit. 

What AI does do well is provide insurance brokers with data-analysis-based insights, roadmaps for streamlined workflows, and automation for the most mundane necessities of the job, which gives brokers more time to do the things they do best and the things that can make them successful in their roles.

Two of the main ways that insurance brokers have been putting artificial intelligence to work to the benefit of their business are via improved customer service platforms and increased risk management proficiency, which can both lead to a significant competitive advantage, especially over less technologically forward competitors. 

Market Insights
Is Inflation Finally Under Control?
Inflation in the US only 3% between June 2022 and June 2023 - below the average of 3.8% inflation recorded between 1960 and 2022.
July 13, 2023

It looks like inflation may finally be contained at a manageable level for the first time since prices for consumer goods began rapidly rising during the onset of the pandemic. 

As of the latest report, inflation is lower than it has been over the last couple of years, with a year over year increase of just 3% from June of 2022 to last month. In fact, when relatively volatile food and energy prices are excluded from the calculation, core inflation is currently at an annualized rate of about 2.4%. It’s also worth noting that these figures are down markedly from the 3.8% average annual inflation that the US clocked from 1960 through 2022. 

That said, 3% year-over-year inflation remains above the Federal Reserve target threshold of 2%, so there is still a strong possibility that our central bankers will choose to implement another interest rate hike this year - especially if the job market continues outperforming expectations - but a growing number of economists believe the Fed may forgo another rate increase in the short term, and these inflationary numbers will certainly add weight to that argument. After 5 points of rate hikes since March of last year, the possibility of a reprieve on interest rate increases - conceivably through the remainder of the year - was very positively received by Wall Street, which saw a surge in stock and bond prices as a result. 

There are a number of factors that are contributing to bringing inflation down, including falling food prices, which had spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine last year but have largely normalized as alternative sourcing and development have scaled. While grocery prices are still rising, to be sure, they are doing so at a much slower pace, and some types of groceries, including eggs - which notoriously ballooned in price in recent years - have come down substantially from their price peaks.

Another inflation calming factor has been a reduction in apartment rental rate, largely as result of increased supply from all the additional housing construction that has taken place recently. Used car and airline ticket prices have also come down. 

Even with inflation down at or below normal levels over the past year, however, not all consumer goods and services are seeing price increases invert or even slow in some cases. The cost of eating at restaurants, car insurance, childcare services, and even dental work are some of the areas where consumer prices continue to climb rapidly. Car insurance policies, for example, saw an average 17% increase from the year before.

Perhaps as a result of some of these prices that continue quickly rising despite a major drop in overall inflation, consumer sentiment is lower than it has been in 83% of the last 45 years. On net, however, consumers are in a much better position with regard to consumer goods prices than they were a year ago, even if the impacts of the rapid inflation, which go well beyond price uncertainty, remain actively in their minds. 

The Fed will meet again at the end of this month, and for a time it had been largely expected that another quarter point rate increase was in store, but these inflation numbers may well make that particular conclusion significantly less foregone.

You can read more about the latest inflation report here