Economy
The Employment Situation for October 2024
The latest economic release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the U.S. added an impressive 254 thousand new jobs last month, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.
October 7, 2024

Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from September 2024 that was published in October 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a point for a second straight month, dropping from about 4.2% to 4.1% after inching up for the 5 consecutive prior months.

The payroll figures were even more impressive, with over 250 thousand new jobs added through September, beating estimates of 150 thousand jobs by nearly 70%. 

The number of unemployed people essentially held steady at about 6.8 million which is up approximately half a million people from where it was 12 months ago when the unemployment rate was 3.8%.

Interestingly, the number of people who were jobless for less than 5 weeks fell by more than 10% down to 2.1 million, while the number of long-term unemployed was essentially unchanged at 1.6 million, which is up slightly from 1.3 million at this time last year. 

The food services and drinking establishment industries were responsible for the largest portion of the 254 thousand jobs that were added last month, netting almost 70 thousand additional workers over the course of September, which is almost 5 times the monthly hiring rate that food services and drinking establishments have averaged over the last 12 months.

The healthcare industry added the next most net jobs  last month at 45 thousand, although that figure represents underperformance relative to the 57 thousand jobs that the healthcare industry has been averaging for the past year. 

Government payrolls increased by about 31 thousand jobs, while the social assistance and construction industries each saw their ranks grow by about 26 thousand. 

No industries saw a significant decrease in jobs throughout September while the remainder of industries including natural resource extraction, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, information, transportation & warehousing, finance, and business/professional/other services all remained essentially unchanged.

Average hourly pay spiked by 13 cents last month, jumping to $35.36 per hour and representing a 0.4% increase over the month before. Average hourly pay has increased by 4% over the last year, which is two-tenths of a point higher than it was in last month’s report.

The average workweek, on the other hand, increased by another tenth of an hour down to 34.2 hours per week.

Mployer’s Take

Just over 2 weeks ago, the Federal Reserve announced the long-awaited 50 basis point (or half percent) cut in the benchmark interest rate, which is the first rate cut since 2020.

With those rates still around 5% however, another rate cut before the year ends remains possible at this point - especially in light of inflation in consumer prices hovering at 2.5%, just over the Fed’s long-stated target of 2% - but the strength of this of this jobs report has probably reduced the chances of another rate cut in the next few months.

From an economic perspective, it is hard to find much to complain about in this data, and the long-sought soft landing that the Fed has been aiming for appears to be coming to fruition.

Looking at the political perspective given the upcoming election, the strength of this report would certainly be welcome news by any incumbent candidate who can fairly claim some credit, and that may be increasingly true the closer we get to Voting Day.

As it turns out, however, this particular jobs report won’t be the last to arrive in advance of the election, as the November report covering October’s data will come out on November 1st this year, which happens to be the last Friday before ballots are cast on Tuesday, November 5th. 

The strength of this jobs report is undeniable, but the contents of next month’s report may ultimately be significantly more influential. 

Check out the Mployer blog here.

Compliance & Policy
Minnesota Creates New PFML Coverage Statewide
Paid Family & Medical Leave rights were just signed into law in the land of 10,000 lakes.
June 6, 2023

Minnesota is the latest state to enact new paid family and medical leave legislation. 

Under the newly signed law, will be able to take up to 12 weeks for personal medical issues per year as well as 12 weeks per year for care-taking, bonding with newborns, managing emergencies, and other qualifying circumstances. That said, in any given year, each employee is limited to 20 weeks of paid leave total under this bill.

These new provisions will become available to qualifying applicants beginning in the fall of 2026.

You can read more about the legislation including how payments are calculated here.

Financial Benefits
Some Employers Are Retaining Retiree Assets In-Plan
There are a number of reasons more employers are encouraging retiring employees to keep their defined contribution assets in the employer's group plan even post-retirement.
June 6, 2023

According to a recent piece from PlanSponsor, employers are recognizing some of the benefits that can be obtained by continuing to manage retirement fund accounts even after the employee in question has retired and left the company. 

By allowing and even encouraging employees to keep their defined contribution assets in-plan, companies maintain a larger pool of managed assets, which has financial advantages when it comes to optimizing rates charged for managing the money and paperwork. 

This trend is a reversal of course from previous business norms which sought to remove these assets from in-plan rolls as soon as possible upon each employee’s retirement in order to eliminate administrative responsibilities and any accompanying liability exposure. 

You can read more about this topic here.

Market Insights
Job Growth Outpaces Forecasts Again
The latest economic release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the U.S. added 339 thousand new jobs last month, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%.
June 5, 2023

Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from May 2023 that was published in June 2023. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Not only did US employers add nearly 340 thousand new jobs last month, but March and April’s numbers received an upward revision as well, by 41 thousand and 52 thousand, respectively. 

Although new job additions are still below the uncharacteristically strong job growth seen in January and February of this year, the trend over the last 3 months from March through May is becoming increasingly positive. 

Despite the impressive number of new hires, however, the average unemployment rate across the US went up by three-tenths of a point to 3.7%, which is the highest unemployment rate registered since November 2022. 

Granted, since it was at a half-century low last month, up was always the most likely direction for the unemployment rate to go, but three-tenths of a point is a relatively large jump. In fact, there hasn’t been a month-to-month change of three-tenths of a percentage point in the US unemployment rate since December of 2021 when the rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2% the month before. 

There was also a significant month-to-month increase in the number of job losers and those whose temporary employment contract expired last month, which grew by almost 320 thousand people during May, increasing from 2.64 to 2.96 million which is essentially on par with March’s data.

For the second month in a row, the industry that saw the largest number of new jobs was professional and business services, which added 64 thousand jobs last month, followed by government and health care, which each added a little more than 50 thousand jobs.

Prior to the recent ascendance of professional and business services, the leisure and hospitality industry led the hiring charge for most of the past two years as it lagged behind most industries in terms of recouping pandemic losses. Last month, leisure and hospitality added another 48 thousand jobs, which is on par with the 40 thousand and 47 thousand jobs added each of the past two months prior, though below the average of 77 thousand new jobs that leisure and hospitality businesses had been adding each of the past 12 months. It appears that rehiring in the leisure and hospitality industry is slowing down as it approaches February of 2020 staffing levels, which are still about 2.1% or 350 thousand more job additions away.

The construction, social assistance, and transportation and warehousing industries each added about 25 thousand jobs, as well, while payroll ranks were largely stable in the oil and gas extraction, mining, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and financial services industries. 

Average hourly pay for all employees rose by 11 cents to $33.44 per hour, which is a 4.3% increase over the past 12 months. Pay for private-sector non-supervisory roles climbed at a somewhat steeper rate, adding 13 cents to average hourly pay last month and landing on $28.75 per hour.

The average work week for all employees decreased by 6 minutes to 34 hours and 18 minutes per week, while the workweek for non-supervisory employees held steady at 33.8 hours. 

Mployer Advisor’s Take

The 339 thousand new jobs added last month is right on point with the average monthly job additions for the past 12 months of 341 thousand, which is all the more remarkable considering the Fed has raised the interest rate by almost 5 points during that time with the specific intent of cooling off the job market as an anti-inflationary tactic. 

Despite the impressive hiring numbers, of course, the unemployment rate did climb significantly in the same report, which seems to reveal some degree of disconnect or dissonance in the data. It’s always a worthwhile reminder that the information used to assess the unemployment rate and the job additions are entirely separate data sets, so divergence is not unexpected or especially unusual. 

It’s also worth noting that the current unemployment rate at 3.7% is still historically low despite rising by three-tenths of a point last month - it’s just not as historically low as it was last month when it matched its lowest level since the 1960s. 

Still, there are other indicators that the economy may in fact be softening more than the jobs numbers and unemployment rate alone would indicate, including sales numbers for existing homes that are down 3.4% from last month and down more than 23% from April of 2022

The Fed will once again reconvene later this month to determine if it will increase interest rates for the 11th time since March of 2022. Many prognosticators had interpreted statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to indicate that a pause in rate hikes was a likely outcome of the upcoming meeting, but the continued strong performance of the job market may be calling some of those forecasts into question.

Eager for more exclusive content? Check out the Mployer Advisor blog here.

Workforce Management
It’s Back To The Office For Facebook & Co.
Meta is leaning into hybrid schedules with a mandatory 3 days per week in-office starting this fall.
June 5, 2023

Meta, parent company to Facebook and Instagram, has made some changes to its off-site work policy. 

Despite their significant investment in and promotion of virtual meeting technology as well as enabling all employees to work remotely beginning in the summer of 2021, Meta has decided to require employees to return to the office 3 days a week beginning September of this year. 

It’s worth noting that these changes in course are occurring amidst Meta’s embrace of 2023 as the year of efficiency, which is ultimately expected to account for the loss of more than 20 thousand jobs across their many subsets of employees, which may impact employee leverage and response to the newly announced policy. 

You can read more about Meta’s policy update here.

Employee Benefits
Employers Are Overlooking Menopause Benefits
Menopause affects a substantial portion of the workforce during a stretch of often career-critical years and the demand for menopause-related benefits significantly outpaces the supply most employers are offering.
June 5, 2023

A new report from The National Menopause Foundation in conjunction with Bank of America indicates that more than half of women who have experienced menopause say that it made their life at work more challenging. 

According to the data collected, despite nearly 2 out of 3 women wanting menopause-related benefit offerings as a part of their employee benefits package, only 14% of women believe that their employer adequately recognizes the importance of menopause benefits and accommodations. 

Most women hit menopause at an age between 45 and 55 years, though that range can be quite flexible on a case-by-case basis. The entire menopausal process usually lasts about 7 years, so menopause and its accompanying symptoms often occur for a significant length of time during some of what are often the most important and productive years of a person’s career. 

You can read more about the underlying research and analysis here.

Insurance Broker
How Employee Benefits Brokers Benefit Your Business
There are many advantages that working with an experienced broker can provide in helping company's stay up to date with evolving trends and expectations across markets.
June 5, 2023

Corporate Wellness Magazine recently published a post that outlines some of the biggest advantages that working with an experienced benefits broker can provide when facing the particular obstacles and challenges that arise when designing a comprehensive benefits package for your company’s employees.

At the top of the list is the expertise and guidance that employee benefits brokers bring to the process, ideally having themselves worked with similarly situated companies both within and outside of your company’s industry. Greater cost management awareness and tracking -made possible in part by streamlined administration and data analytics that incorporate a larger data set than just what your company provides - is another big advantage that manifests as a result of that experience, as well. 

Other benefits derived from partnering with a benefits broker or advisor include seasoned risk management and compliance protocols, as well as employee education and communication plans that have been tested and optimized for effectiveness.

You can read more about how consulting with employee benefits brokers can benefit your business here.