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Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from September 2024 that was published in October 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The US unemployment rate average came down about one-tenth of a point for the second straight month, falling from 4.2% to 4.1% over the course of September.
The overall economic picture remains one of stability, however, with 44 states reporting no significant change in unemployment rate during the month.
There were, however, only 5 states plus Washington DC that saw an increase in unemployment rate, while only 1 state saw its unemployment rate drop in a meaningful way.
At the same time, US employers saw about a quarter million new additions to their payrolls, but only 5 states and Washington DC recorded a net increase in jobs while only 1 state saw a net decrease.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for October 2024.
The latest report marks the 5th straight month in a row that Washington DC has claimed the highest unemployment rate, holding steady at 5.7% month to month.
Nevada wasn’t far behind at 5.6% - and worse, Nevada’s rate increased one-tenth of a point over the month climbing to 5.5%, so it’s moving in the wrong direction.
5 other states saw their unemployment rates go up, with the largest increases (plus 0.2% each) recorded by South Carolina and Utah, while Indiana, Montana, and Tennessee each recorded a 0.1% increase in unemployment rate.
Over the last 12 months, just under half of all states (23) saw an increase in unemployment rate over the last 12 months, with South Carolina and Rhode Island recording the largest rate increases at 1.5% and 1.4%, followed by Ohio at plus 0.9% and Washington DC and Indiana each at plus 0.8%.
For 9 straight months now, South Dakota has claimed the lowest unemployment rate among states, which has been remarkably steady at 2% over the last several months.
Next on the list are Vermont, North Dakota, and Nebraska, which also held steady month to month at 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.7%, respectively, followed by Mississippi and Maine at 2.8%.
For the second month in a row, Connecticut was the only state to record a net reduction in unemployment - falling from 3.4% to 3.2%.
Over the last year, 6 states have recorded a decrease in unemployment rate, led by Connecticut at minus 0.8%, followed by Arizona at minus 0.7%, Wisconsin at minus 0.5%, Mississippi and Maine at minus 0.4%, and Arkansas at minus 0.3%.
No state recorded a net reduction in jobs over the course of the last month and no state recorded a net reduction in jobs over the course of the last year.
Over the last month, 5 states plus Washington DC have seen a net increase in their number of in-state payroll entries.
New Jersey added the largest number of jobs, with a net gain of more than 19 thousand, followed by Colorado with almost 13 thousand, and Arizona with just over 11 thousand.
In terms of net job gains as a percent of total jobs with in-state employers, Idaho saw the biggest increase with a 0.7% bump; followed by Washington DC and Rhode Island, which grew 0.6% each; Colorado and New Jersey recorded 0.4% increases, and the number of employed people in Arizona rose by 0.3%.
Over the last 12 months, Idaho and Montana have seen the largest percentage growth at 3.4% each. South Carolina payrolls grew by 3.3% over the past year, while Alaska and Minnesota grew by 2.9%, and North Dakota grew by 2.2%.
New Jersey and Minnesota recorded the smallest job growth over the past year at 1.2%, followed by Kansas at 1.3%.
Less than 2 weeks out from the election, all eyes are on the races to determine who will control the reigns of government for the coming terms.
Currently, the DOW is predicting a Harris win, while the betting markets are favoring Trump, and the polls are nearly split right down the middle.
One last jobs report will be coming out next Friday, the first of November, which will be the last economic release prior to Election Day, but with the polls already open in many if not most places, that data certainly won’t be influencing the decisions of the entirety of the electorate, at the very least.
One more interest rate cut before year’s end seems likely regardless of how the elections play out, but for the moment at least, the most important factor in determining the trajectory of the US economy and job market in the coming years is currently being decided at the ballot box.
By the time we check back in with November’s Market Summary analysis, we will hopefully have a better idea about what comes next in the bigger picture sense.
Looking for more exclusive content? Check out the Mployer blog.
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