Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from April 2025 that was published in May 2025. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
US employers exceeded job forecasts by almost one-third, adding 177 thousand new entries to their payrolls last month, which was almost 40 thousand more than had been predicted.
Only 5 states saw a net increase in jobs, however, while the remaining states and Washington DC recorded no meaningful movement in net job figures.
Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate remained essentially unchanged through April at 4.2%.
Over the course of the month, however, 3 states plus Washington DC recorded an increase in statewide unemployment, while 2 states registered a decrease in unemployment rate and the remaining states saw no significant change.
16 states have seen an increase in net jobs throughout the last 12 months, while the remaining 34 plus Washington DC have recorded no net movement over the year.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary from the May 2025 report.
Washington DC was the ‘state’ with the highest unemployment rate last month at 5.8% overtaking Nevada which had been on a 5-month streak with the highest unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate in Washington DC climbed from 5.6% to 5.8% over the month, while Nevada’s unemployment rate continued its downward trajectory, decreasing from 5.7% to 5.6%.
Only 5 other states recorded an unemployment rate that was significantly above the national average in April - Michigan (5.5%), California (5.3%), Kentucky (5.2%), Ohio (4.9%), and Illinois (4.8%).
Besides Washington DC, there were only 3 states that recorded an increase in unemployment rate - Massachusetts (+0.2% unemployment, climbing from 4.4% to 4.6%), Iowa (+ 0.1%, rising from 3.4% to 3.5%), and Virginia (+0.1%, increasing from 3.2% to 3.3%).
Over the last 12 months, 27 states have recorded an increase in unemployment rate, led by Mississippi at plus 1.2% and Michigan at plus 1.1%.
South Dakota notched its 16th consecutive month as the state with the lowest unemployment rate, holding steady at 1.8% through April.
In total, 19 states recorded unemployment rates significantly below the national average of 4.2%. While South Dakota was the only state to show unemployment below 2%, there were 4 states with unemployment rates below 3% last month - Hawaii (2.9%), Montana (2.7%), Vermont (2.7%), and North Dakota (2.6%).
Over the last month, only 2 states recorded a drop in unemployment rate - Indiana (-0.2%, decreasing from 4.1% unemployment to 3.9% over the year), and Nevada (-0.1%, falling from 5.7% to 5.6%).
Over the last 12 months, only Montana posted a net decrease in unemployment rate at - 0.3%.
No state recorded significant net job losses over the last month or over the last year.
5 states saw a significant increase in net jobs over the course of April. Texas had the largest increase in raw state payroll count at almost 38 thousand, followed by Ohio at about 22 thousand, and North Carolina at about 18 thousand.
In terms of proportional job growth, Arizona, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Ohio all recorded a 0.4% increase, while Texas posted 0.3% growth.
From April 2024 through April 2025, 16 states recorded a net increase in job growth, with the largest raw figure increases occurring in Texas (plus about 216 thousand jobs), Florida (plus about 144 thousand jobs), and New York (plus about 114 thousand jobs).
The largest percentage increase in the state workforce over the last 12 months, however, was claimed by Hawaii (plus 2.7%), followed by South Carolina (plus 2.4%), and Idaho (2.3%).
This report represents the final data from Trump’s first 100 days in office during his second term, which is historically when presidents accomplish a disproportionate amount of their agendas.
That said, many of the workforce cuts in the federal government that have taken place since Trump repurposed the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk to the task have yet to impact the unemployment and jobs data due to how and when those job reductions are captured and measured.
Similarly, while the threat and implementation of tariffs may yet have a more significant impact on national employment, the vast majority of tariffs that Trump implemented are currently on pause for another 6 weeks, and while the uncertainty is likely affecting the labor market to some degree, the impacts thus far have been relatively minimal.
The continued strength of the labor market has significantly reduced the likelihood that the Fed will bring down interest rates when they meet again to discuss the matter next month. In fact, rate reductions at any point over the summer are looking less realistic at this point, although conditions can change very quickly, especially in the event that the tariff pause is not extended when it expires in early July.
Perhaps the most significant indicators of economic problems that may lay ahead are the interest rates attached to US Treasury bonds, which have been increasing as current investors (both foreign and domestic) unload their bond holdings to a buyer pool that is demanding increasingly higher returns.
Those bond interest rate increases reflect decreased confidence in both short and long term US economic health and increased concern in the ability of the US government to service its growing debt.
Further, these issues may become exacerbated should the Senate get on board with the House’s Big Beautiful Bill given the trillions of additional debt the plan will result in if ultimately enacted into law and if the US GDP growth is unable to offset the spending increases and tax cuts included in the bill.
The US recorded negative GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 and if that trajectory holds or continues downward, the US economic conditions will be formally labeled as a recession as early as July as well, and while negative GDP growth in the current quarter is not a foregone conclusion, crossing that threshold would likely result in other negative economic feedback effects to pile on the situation.
In short, July may be a very meaningful month when it comes to both determining and assessing the US economic trajectory going forward.
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