Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from April 2025 that was published in May 2025. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The job market once again proved to be more resilient than economists were predicting, with US employers adding 177 thousand jobs over the course of April as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
That figure of 177 thousand new jobs significantly exceeds the approximate 135 thousand new jobs that economists had forecast and is on par with the prior month’s ultimate report of 185 thousand new jobs (revised down from an initially-reported and headline-grabbing 228 thousand new jobs).
The number of long-term unemployed people rose by about 180 thousand to reach 1.7 million people, which is an increase of almost 12%. Long-term unemployed people - those who have been out of work but seeking it for 27 weeks or more - account for almost one-quarter of all unemployed people. Long term unemployment has increased by more than one-third over the last 12 months, up from about 1.25 million in April of 2024.
There was little change across most other metrics over the course of the month, however, with the employment population ratio (60%), labor force participation rate (62.6%), the number of people working part time for economic reasons (4.7 million), and the number of people who want a job (5.7 million) all essentially holding steady over the month.
Of the 177 thousand net jobs added last month, the healthcare industry was responsible for the largest proportion, adding 51 thousand jobs over the course of April, which is just below the 52 thousand net new payroll entries averaged each month over the last 12.
The transportation & warehousing industry had the next largest net job increase in April, increasing its ranks by abou 29 thousand, with the financial activities industry and the social services industry claiming the addition of 14 thousand net employees and 8 thousand net employees, respectively, as well.
While there was no significant change over the month in most other industries, federal government employment did register a noteworthy drop of 9 thousand employees, bringing the total number of net federal jobs lost in 2025 to 26 thousand, although that figure does not represent the entirety of the situation - more on that to come.
Average hourly pay rose by about 6 cents to an even $36.06 per hour (an increase of 0.2%) over the month while the increase was about 3.8% over the last year - up from $34.67 per hour for privately employed, non-farm workers.
The length of the average workweek grew slightly over the month to 34.3 hours per week.
The headline story from the jobs report is the continued strength of the labor market even in the face of economic forces like the threat and/or implementation of sweeping global tariffs, but the labor market alone does not tell the entire story of the economic moment.
For one, the federal workforce reductions instituted by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency may be 10 times larger than the 26 thousand jobs that have so far registered in this data, but those numbers won’t show up until those employees severance/leave pay has expired.
Even more importantly, the GDP dropped by .03% through the first 3 months of 2025, which is the first contraction of GDP in 3 years, and while looming tariffs and federal firings were certainly contributors, those factors are more likely to have an increasing influence over the economy as a whole in the coming months than a decreasing influence.
Still, despite the lag in capturing federal employees whose jobs were recently terminated in these data sets and despite the uncertainty surrounding both the tariffs and their impact, this jobs report indicates that employers are still carrying on hiring, which itself is a kind of vote of confidence for the continued resilience of the US economy.
Further, inflation is up only 2.3% from last year and the rate of increase is trending downward, which is another positive sign, yet many economists (and employers) remain pessimistic about our chances for avoiding economic downturn in the months ahead.
The Federal Reserve will soon be facing the decision again about what to do with interest rates, and although inflation is nearing the Fed’s stated target of 2% annualized inflation, in light of the potential inflationary pressure that tariffs are capable of producing, the Fed may be less eager to lower interest rates now than they otherwise may have been given the current inflation levels.
We’ll know more about the Fed’s short term plan for interest rates in just a couple days, but we are still a ways off from knowing the ultimate impact of tariffs and federal workforce restructuring.
In light of the first quarter economic contraction, however, and in light of the fact that economic recession can be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, it’s entirely possible that the current economic conditions are retroactively labeled as a recession as soon as July, even with the labor market still humming along.
Check out the Mployer blog here.