Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from January 2023 that was published in March 2023. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
In the first set of data from 2023, the unemployment rose by two-tenths of a percentage to 3.6% after registering the lowest national unemployment rate since the 1960’s at 3.4% in the final month of 2022.
This slight uptick in the employment rate was possible despite the fact that only 11 states plus Washington DC had unemployment rates that were higher than the national average, and even fewer (2 states plus DC) saw their unemployment rates increase month-over-month.
In fact, no states saw their payroll figures decline over the course of the month, and 20 states registered an increase in the number of employed workers in their states while the remaining 30 states were essentially unchanged.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for February 2023.
Nevada had the highest unemployment rate, climbing over the last several months from 4.9% to 5.2% and now to 5.5%. Oregon had the second highest unemployment rate at 4.8% followed by Washington state and Delaware at 3.6% each.
Washington DC had the largest unemployment rate increase over the month at plus 0.2%, with California and Virginia being the only other states that saw their unemployment rates go up (plus 0.1% each).
The Dakotas found themselves atop the list for states with the lowest unemployment rates last month, at 2.1% unemployment each. Utah was close behind at 2.4% unemployment, followed by Montana and Nebraska which both registered a rate of 2.5%.
5 states saw net reductions in their unemployment rates over the month, with the largest reductions going to Arizona and Nebraska at minus 0.2% each. Massachusetts, Montana, and Wisconsin all saw their unemployment rates drop by 0.1% month-to-month.
There were no net job losses as of this latest report.
California had the largest increase in its payroll figures by far last month with the addition of nearly 100 thousand jobs. Texas and Florida reported the next largest sums of raw job additions over the month with almost 50 thousand and 30 thousand respectively.
When looking at new jobs as a percentage of total jobs within a state, Tennessee and Arizona topped the list with 0.7% job growth over the month, followed by Kansas, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico with plus 0.6% job growth apiece.
While this economic report was released on March 13th, 2023, it is based on data that was collected in January of 2023. As a result, we have a greater lag between when the data was captured and now than we usually do, so the benefit of hindsight is especially strong in this case.
Even after some downward adjusting, for example, we know that the total job additions during this term remained above 500 thousand, which was an unseasonably strong performance perhaps driven in part by some unseasonably warm weather.
Earlier in this piece, we noted that 20 states had seen significant month-over-month growth in their job figures, but what might be more remarkable is that each of those 20 states saw at least 0.3% growth, which is an impressive bar for 40% of all states to be clearing, all the more so in light of the Fed’s interest rate hikes.
What’s most clear now is that January was an especially strong month, but right alongside the benefit of hindsight comes the curse of knowing what comes next. In our case that includes additional major layoffs in the tech industry as well as a couple bank failures that will be rippling through this survey data in the coming months.
Still, one last benefit of the delayed reporting on this data, we suppose, is that we’ll only have to wait a couple more weeks until more data becomes available and the next piece of the puzzle gets put into place as the picture continues taking shape.
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