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Key Takeaways
ARTICLE | The Employers' Guide To The Most Common Job Openings Of The Future
A few weeks ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released some projections about the expected number and type of job openings in the US that are forecast between now and 2033.
Current projections estimate that more than 19 million job openings on average will become available each year over approximately the next decade, but the nature and type of work that those jobs represent may look quite different than it does today.
As technology, consumer behavior, and social norms evolve, human labor will likely remain a key input that enables organizations to offer various products and services, but when, where, and how that labor fits into the value chain may be changing just as quickly as technology, consumer behavior, and social norms.
In this piece, we’ll take a look at what kind of job openings are going to be most prevalent for those looking for work over the next 8 plus years, as well as the education level needed to access those opportunities.
Among job openings for applicants with no educational credentials, the largest share will involve food counter work, primarily in the fast food industry. These job openings are forecast to amount to a little over 900 thousand job openings on average each year.
Cashiers and retail sales professionals account for about 566 thousand and 553 thousand projected annual average openings, respectively, followed by about 471 thousand waiter and waitress openings per year and about 409 thousand average annual openings for laborers and movers of materials.
Janitors and cleaners (excluding maids and housekeeping staff) made up the next largest chunk of job openings among this subcategory at about 350 thousand job openings expected each year, followed by cooks at about 257 thousand job openings expected each year on average, followed by maids/housekeepers, landscapers/groundskeepers, and food prep workers which each account for fewer than 200 thousand annual average projected jobs.
In terms of expected pay, fast food and counter workers come in at the low end of the median expected range at just under $30 thousand per year while the median expected pay for laborers and materials represents the upper end of the range at a little less than $38 thousand per year.
The largest number of job openings with graduation from high school or the equivalent as the minimum education requirement are expected to be personal care aides in the field, with job openings each year expected to reach nearly 720 thousand on average.
Further, there are expected to be almost 486 thousand job openings for stockers and order fillers each year, as well as about 365 annual openings for customer service representatives.
Office worker openings are forecast to amount to about 286 thousand annually, while there may be as many as 215 thousand secretaries and administrative assistant openings on average, and almost 187 food prep and service supervisors.
There are also expected to be around 160 thousand job openings each for childcare professionals, maintenance workers, and security guards on average over the next 8 or so years.
In terms of expected pay scale, the median pay for home health aides is between $33 thousand and $34 thousand per year, with maintenance and repair workers representing the upper end of the range for these job openings at a bit under $38 thousand per year while childcare worker pay at a median average of about $30 thousand per year represents the low end of the pay range among this list of the most common job openings.
The largest number of predicted openings for jobs that require education beyond a high school diploma but do not require a bachelor’s degree will be in the logistics and shipping industry, with more than 200 thousand truck drivers needed on average each year.
Nursing assistants claimed the next largest share of expected job openings with an annual average of almost 209 thousand, followed by nearly 175 thousand openings for accounting, bookkeeping, and audit clerks each year on average.
There are also supposed to be nearly 162 thousand teaching assistant roles available on average each year, as well as about 120 thousand medical assistant openings, 80 thousand hairdressers, as well as around 55 thousand to 65 thousand auto mechanics, preschool teachers, dental assistants, and licensed nurses each.
The licensed nurses at almost $60 thousand per year have the highest expected median pay among this group of jobs, while the lowest median pay among these most common job openings goes to hairdressers with just under $35 thousand per year. The largest group - truck drivers - has a median expected yearly pay of about $57 thousand.
For Job seekers with bachelor’s degrees, the largest number of openings in the years ahead will be in general operations, with more than 425 thousand management position openings predicted each year on average through 2033.
Almost 195 thousand registered nurses will be needed as well, in addition to about 130 thousand accounts and auditors, 125 thousand software developers, 107 thousand business operations specialists, 97 thousand management analysts,
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is also forecasting between 85 thousand and 95 thousand average annual job openings for elementary school teachers, human resources professionals, and marketing analysts/specialists.
The median pay rate of elementary school teachers is on the lower end of the spectrum at a little less than $64 thousand per year while software developers have the highest median pay rate among this group at about $132 thousand, with the largest group - managers - bridging in a median salary of about $109 thousand.
The largest number of expected openings for jobs that require a graduate degree are in the counseling field with almost 50 thousand expected openings for substance abuse, mental health, and behavioral disorder counselors each year throughout the term.
There also appears to be sufficient demand for an additional almost 36 thousand lawyers each year, as well as almost 30 thousand each of education/guidance/career counselors, nurse practitioners, and health specialties/post-secondary teachers.
Further, every year, there will be an average of around 15 thousand to 20 thousand job openings each for instructional coordinators and healthcare social workers in addition to postsecondary teachers and education administrators.
Among these jobs, the ones on the lowest end of the pay range are the substance abuse, mental health, and behavioral disorder counselors which have a median pay of a little under $54 thousand per year, while the highest-paid job of the bunch are lawyers with a median pay of about $145 thousand per year.
These predictions certainly have value in terms of providing a solid roadmap to the expected outcomes should current trends maintain their current courses for the most part for the next 8-plus years.
As it happens, however, there is a seemingly historic amount of uncertainty about whether or not current employment supply and demand trends will hold, especially with regard to the impacts of machine learning, automation, and artificial intelligence.
While technological advancements have often resulted in reduced demand for some types of labor, they have also typically brought with them new opportunities and increased demand for alternative types of labor that in some way offset the technologically-induced job loss.
It is certainly possible that a similar pattern emerges with the adoption of artificial intelligence, as well.
Perhaps never before, however, has a ‘singular’ technological advancement had the potential to be so pervasive across both industries and job functions that it could realistically produce mass labor displacement without replacement on a massively disruptive scale.
In this case, both if and when are relevant questions in terms of whether or not sufficiently capable artificial intelligence is imminent or even possible.
Only time will tell, of course, but we’ll most likely have much better answers about what kind of disruption we can realistically expect in the workforce as a result of artificial intelligence long before we’ll have had the opportunity to compare these job opening predictions with historical data.
In fact, the odds have to be pretty good that artificial intelligence will be largely responsible for making these very job-opening predictions at some point in the not-too-distant future.
We’ll stay on top of any noteworthy developments in the meantime.
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