Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from August 2023 that was published in September 2023. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The national unemployment rate rose by three-tenths of a point last month, climbing to 3.8%.
The vast majority of states saw no meaningful change in their unemployment rates over the course of the month, with 38 states plus Washington DC essentially holding steady from month-to-month.
Only 2 states saw reductions in their unemployment rates last month, which is down from 7 states the month prior and down from 11 states the month before that, so the cooling job market appears to be continuing on the same trajectory.
Further, the number of states reporting an increase in unemployment rate rose to 10 states - up from 2 states the month before.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for September 2023.
Nevada has had the highest unemployment rate for most of 2023, and that trend continued last month with Nevada registering 5.4% - up from 5.3% the month before.
Next on the list of highest unemployment rates is Washington DC, which held steady at 5% unemployment, followed by California at 4.6%.
Wisconsin and New Jersey both saw the largest month-over-month increase in unemployment at plus 0.3% each, followed by Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, and West Virginia at plus 0.2% and Alaska, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Utah at plus 0.1%.
Over the last year, 9 states plus Washington DC saw an increase in their unemployment rates, led by New Jersey at plus 1.2%. California at plus 0.8% was next on the list, followed by Colorado at plus 0.5%, and Minnesota, Missouri, and Texas at plus 0.4%.
Maryland had the lowest unemployment rate last month at 1.7%, down a tenth of a point from last month’s initially reported figures. New Hampshire and Vermont were close behind at 1.8% unemployment each.
North Dakota and South Carolina were the only states to register a reduction in unemployment over the month, each with a 0.1% drop.
25 states saw their unemployment rates go down over the previous 12 months, with Maryland again at the head of the pack with a minus 1.7% year-over-year change in unemployment, followed by Massachusetts and Vermont, which registered unemployment rate reductions of minus 1.3% and minus 1.0%, respectively.
Hawaii (-0.8%), Mississippi (-0.5%), and Missouri (-0.5%) are the only states that reported net job losses last month.
No states saw net job losses over the last 12 months.
5 states in total saw net job growth last month, with North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Maryland reporting the largest number of new payroll additions at about 17 thousand, 15 thousand, and 14 thousand new jobs, respectively.
In terms of percentage growth over the month, Montana claimed the top spot at plus 0.7%, followed by Nevada at plus 0.6%, and Maryland at plus 0.5%.
Over the last 12 months, payrolls have gone up in 32 states, led by Nevada at plus 3.9% and Texas, which added more than 400 thousand jobs over the year.
The Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow, soon after which we will know whether or not they will be implementing the fifth interest rate hike of 2023.
The job market has clearly shown some signs of cooling, but even with the unemployment rate at 3.8%, which is the highest it has been since February of 2022, unemployment is still quite relative to historic norms, and job growth remains stronger than the Fed would like to see at this point.
Further, while inflation has also been substantially tamped down, last month’s flare up of about half a point indicates that it inflation has not been sufficiently tamped down yet, especially in light of the Fed’s stated target of 2% annual inflation. and while the inflation rate also remains at levels well within historic norms.
Given these conditions, another rate hike before the year is out is looking increasing possible if not likely. It remains to be seen whether or not that hike will be instituted this week, (which almost all experts think is very unlikely) or perhaps when decision-makers reconvene in November or December, but the probability of another rate hike in the near future certainly seems to be going up.
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