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Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from October 2024 that was published in November 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
There was no significant change in the national unemployment rate, which held steady at 4.1% over the month, nor was there any meaningful movement in national payroll figures, which fell far short of expectations and amounted to a net increase of only about 12,000 jobs.
The vast majority of states saw comparably little change in their in-state unemployment rates and payroll figures, although 3 states recorded an increase in unemployment throughout October (while 1 state recorded an unemployment rate reduction) and 2 states recorded a net decrease in jobs.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for October 2024.
Washington DC had the highest unemployment rate among ‘states’ for the 6th month in a row - holding steady at 5.7% - joined this month by Nevada which saw its unemployment rate climb by one-tenth of a point over the month up from 5.6%.
California and Illinois are the only other states to have unemployment rates higher than the US national average. Those rates are currently 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively.
Over the course of the last month, Iowa is the only other state that saw its unemployment rate rise by a significant margin, rising from 2.9% to 3%.
In the last year, 25 states have seen their unemployment rates go up, led by South Carolina, Rhode Island, and Indiana with unemployment rate increases of 1.7%, 1.2%, and 0.9%, respectively over the last 12 months.
For the 10th consecutive month, South Dakota has recorded the lowest unemployment rate in the country, dropping one-tenth of a point to 1.9% after holding steady at 2% unemployment for several months prior.
Those figures put South Dakota’s unemployment rate nearly half a point below the next lowest unemployment rate among states, which is Vermont at 2.3%, followed by North Dakota and New Hampshire at 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Besides South Dakota, the only other states to record a decrease in unemployment rate over October are Connecticut and Delaware, which saw their in-state unemployment rates reduced by 0.2% each last month.
Over the last year, 6 states in total have seen a net reduction in unemployment, with the largest unemployment rate decrease over the last 12 months being recorded by Connecticut (minus 1.2%), followed by Arizona (minus 0.6%), Maine and Wisconsin (minus 0.5%), Arkansas (minus 0.4%), and Kentucky (minus 0.2%).
Florida and Washington state both recorded net job losses last month amounting to about 37 thousand jobs each representing 0.4% and 1% in-state workforce losses, respectively.
No state recorded net job losses over the last 12 months.
No state recorded a significant net increase in jobs over the last month, but just over half of all states (27) recorded net job gains over the last year.
In terms of raw job figures, Texas saw the largest number of new job additions at about 275 thousand payroll entries through the last 12 months, followed by California at about 212 thousand, and New York and Florida at about 133 thousand net jobs each.
Idaho has the largest net job gains over the last year as a percentage of in-state workforce (plus 3.1%), followed by Missouri and South Carolina at plus 2.7% each.
In some ways, this latest market employment report looks like a picture of stability at face value given that the unemployment and job numbers have barely budged since last month’s report.
What’s missing from the report, however, is consistency and predictability, as evidenced by the job forecasts exceeding the actual number of net new jobs recorded by a factor of 10.
To be clear, these job numbers are difficult to take at face value, as well, in light of the disruptions to both data collection and hiring caused by external factors such as hurricanes and strikes that occurred when this data was being reported and compiled.
That said, given that the average monthly job growth over the past year has been nearly 200 thousand net new jobs per month, it is exceedingly unlikely that those external factors can account for the entirety of the shortfall.
The labor market certainly seems to be continuing to soften to some degree, though the extent remains to be seen, but that softening was very much expected and in fact is an intended result of the interest rate hikes to help reduce inflation without triggering a recession.
With inflation down to 2.6% annualized and no apparent imminent recession on the way, and with the Federal Reserve already having cut baseline interest rates by half a point over the last couple of months while signaling more cuts for 2025, the soft-landing sought by the Fed seems to have been successfully executed.
Of course, there is no hard cut-off date by which the success of the interest-rate-hiking campaign and the soft landing will ultimately be evaluated, and the current inertia of the labor market could result in continued softening even with interest rates already starting to come down.
While there is no set bookend for evaluating the Fed’s soft-landing, however, there likely is a bookend on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remaining time in his current role given that his term is set to expire in May of 2026.
Assuming Chairman Powell serves out the remainder of his term, which he appears intent to do, we can reasonably expect continuity at the Fed and whatever economic consistency that continuity helps foster for nearly another year and a half after power in the White House and US Senate changes hands in the new year.
The bigger questions in the nearer term are what new policies we are going to see as a result of the shifting power (e.g. tariffs, tax cuts, work visas, labor regulations) and how those policies affect the current economic trajectory and momentum.
We will be keeping an eye on those policies as they emerge and take shape through the governing process in the months ahead.
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