Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from October 2023 that was published in November 2023. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The US unemployment rate crept up by one-tenth of a point to 3.9% as a whole, though only 26 states saw an increase in their unemployment rates last month, while the remainder of states and Washington DC were essentially stable.
That stability was even more widespread when it comes to jobs numbers, where 49 states plus DC saw no significant movement either way, while only 1 state saw a net increase in jobs - Florida.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for November 2023.
There are a total of 5 states including DC with unemployment rates higher than the US average of 3.9%, with Nevada remaining at the top of the list, ticking slightly back up again to 5.4%.
Washington DC had the next highest unemployment rate at 5%, followed by California at 4.8% and Illinois and New Jersey at 4.6%. All the remaining states reported unemployment rates of 3.4% and below.
Over the month, 14 states saw an unemployment rate increase of 0.2% (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia), while 12 states saw an unemployment rate increase of 0.1% (California, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin).
Over the last year, 13 states in total saw their unemployment rates climb, led by New Jersey at plus 1.3% and Washington DC at plus 0.8%, followed by California at plus 0.7% and Alaska and Colorado at plus 0.5% each.
There are a total of 26 states that have unemployment rates lower than the national average, with Maryland recording the lowest unemployment rate for the 3rd month in a row at 1.7% despite ticking up a tenth of a point from the month before.
North Dakota had the second lowest unemployment rate at 1.9% followed by South Dakota and Vermont, both at 2%.
Of the 21 states that have seen a reduction in their unemployment rates over the past 12 months, Maryland has seen the largest drop in unemployment rate among states, at minus 1.4%, followed by Oregon at minus 1.2%, Vermont at minus 1.1%, and Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming at minus 1%, apiece.
No states saw statistically significant job losses last month.
Florida was the only state to record a net increase in jobs last month, adding about 23 thousand jobs for a plus 0.3% gain.
Over the last year, payroll entries went up across 34 states, while the remainder saw no significant movement. Texas, California, and Florida created the largest number of new jobs over the previous 12 months, recording 391, 285, and 278 thousand jobs, respectively.
Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio were the only other states to clear 100 thousand new jobs over the year, adding about 129, 119, and 109 jobs, respectively.
The largest percentage gains in jobs over the last 12 months occurred in Idaho at plus 3.5%, Nevada at plus 3.4%, and Texas and Florida at 2.9% each.
The unemployment rate figures and job addition figures draw from different survey data sets, so they are not always in precise agreement.
In fact, many times in recent months, any upticks in the unemployment rate more often than not seemed to be counterbalanced by better-than-expected new job additions.
As of this most recent report, however, the economic picture that’s emerging seems to be telling a more consistent story - that the job market may be softening in line with what the forecasts had been predicting would eventually happen in response to the interest rate hiking campaign that the Federal Reserve has been conducting for the last year and a half.
Of course, there have been more than a few points throughout the summer and fall when it seemed like the job market might’ve been cooling before, just for it to heat back up again the very next month. The same can be said for inflation, which is also down at an average annualized rate of about 3.2% currently.
Next month, as always, will help fill in some of the missing pieces as to whether, but especially in light of the strong GDP growth during the third quarter of 2023 at 4.9%, the recession-avoiding, inflation-dampening soft landing that the Fed has been targeting is looking more and more likely.
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