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Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from June 2024 that was published in July 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
US employers added just over 200 thousand jobs over the course of June, with 8 states recording net increases in payroll figures over the month, while the remaining 42 states and Washington DC saw no significant change in total in-state job numbers.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose one-tenth of a percent to 4.1%, which - despite being low by historical standards - is the highest US average unemployment in almost 3 years.
In total, 8 states registered an increase in unemployment rate over the month, while Connecticut stood alone as the only state to record a decrease in unemployment, as Washington DC and the other states remained essentially the same.
5 states in total have unemployment rates that are higher than the national average, while 26 states have unemployment rates below the national average.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for July 2024.
For the second month in a row, Washington DC had the highest unemployment rate, up one-tenth of a point to 5.4%, with California holding steady at 5.2% while Nevada ticked up a tenth of a point to tie California at 5.2%.
Over the month, 8 states recorded an increase in unemployment rate, with Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and South Carolina each seeing their respective unemployment rates climb by 0.2%, while Georgia, Minnesota, and Utah saw their unemployment rates grow by 0.1%, each.
Over the last 12 months, 32 states in total have seen their unemployment rates increase, led by Rhode Island at plus 1.7%, followed by Ohio and Washington state at 1.1% apiece.
South Dakota stood alone at the top of the list of lowest unemployment rates among states with 2.0% - marking the 6th month in a row for South Dakota earning this distinction - while North Dakota fell slightly behind to 2.1% alongside Vermont.
The only state that recorded a reduction in unemployment was Connecticut, which saw its unemployment rate fall 0.4% from 4.3% to 3.9% over the month.
In the last 12 months, only Arizona and Mississippi have recorded a net decrease in unemployment at minus 0.5% (3.8% to 3.3%) and minus 0.3% (3.1% to 2.8%), respectively.
No states saw statistically significant job losses last month/year.
While normally comparing the number of raw job additions favors the most populous states, of the 8 states that recorded a net increase in jobs over the month, North Carolina had the largest increase with 23 thousand net jobs, followed by Massachusetts with 19 thousand, and Virginia with 15 thousand.
In terms of percentage gains, Arkansas, New Hampshire, and New Mexico each grew the size of their in-state work forces by 0.6%, for gains of about plus about 9 thousand, 4.5 thousand and 5.4 thousand, respectively. Kansas and Missouri payrolls each grew by 0.5%, as well.
Over the last year, just over half of all states have recorded net increases in the number of jobs in state, with the largest raw number gains going to Texas, California, Florida, and New York, while the largest percentage gains were claimed by Texas at plus 3.5%, Missouri at plus 3.2%, and Nevada at plus 3.1%.
Last month’s report looked eerily familiar to the report from the month before, which looked very familiar to the report from the month before that.
The story of the last quarter has been expectation-exceeding (albeit somewhat slowing) growth in job numbers, while the unemployment rate has been inching up one tenth of a point per report.
The increasing unemployment rate isn’t intrinsically a good or bad thing. At these historically low levels it probably represents movement toward equilibrium more than anything else, and the small increases we’ve been seeing may help further dampen some of the upward pressure on wages that has been taking an outsized portion of the blame for the inflation that has rippled through the economy.
With inflationary increases seemingly under control at the moment, and with job growth slowing somewhat, Fed-watchers have the September meeting pegged for the much anticipated first (and possibly only) interest rate decrease of 2024.
Plenty can happen between now and September, of course, but if the economy generally stays the course, that anticipated interest rate decrease is highly likely to come to fruition.
If the economy veers off its current course in the meantime, however, any plans the Feds may have now are always subject to change, of course.
Looking for more exclusive content? Check out the Mployer Advisor blog.
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