Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from June 2022 that was published in July 2022. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The unemployment rate has remained stationary near 50-year historic lows at 3.6% for a full third of a year now. Still, despite that stability and consistency, there are some indications that we may have hit the high-water mark for these metrics.
In the past two months, there are a small number of states that have reported decreased job growth, though fewer this month (Alaska and West Virginia) than last month (Alaska, Michigan, and Wyoming).
It is also worth noting that nearly twice as many states saw an increase in jobs last month compared to the month prior (13 last month vs. seven the month before), so jobs figures are once again trending in a positive direction despite concerns about an economic downturn.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for July 2022.
New Mexico and Washington, D.C. have been in contention for “the state with highest unemployment rate” throughout the year, and last month was no different.
D.C. did not gain any ground last month as both reported unemployment rate reductions of 0.2%. Still, this was a welcome acceleration for D.C. given that it only saw its unemployment rate fall by 0.1% the month before. Washington, D.C. currently has an unemployment rate of 5.5%, while New Mexico reports a rate of 4.9%.
Broken down proportionally, 40% of states have unemployment rates that are below the national average, 10% of states have an unemployment rate higher than the national average, and the remaining 40% of states have an unemployment rate close to or at 3.6%.
After five consecutive months of Utah and Nebraska battling for the top spot among states with the lowest unemployment rates, Minnesota has broken through and claimed the lowest rate at 1.8%.
Minnesota was followed closely by Nebraska, Utah, and New Hampshire.
In total, 10 states (plus D.C.) saw their unemployment rates decrease over the month, with Missouri leading the way at a 0.3% reduction. Only two states saw unemployment rate increases–Indiana and Montana by 0.2% apiece.
Throughout the year, California registered the largest unemployment rate drop at minus 3.7%, followed by Rhode Island at just 0.2% behind at minus 3.5%.
Conversely, the smallest unemployment rate reduction over the year went, once again, to Nebraska. The state reported a rate drop of only 0.6% since June of 2021.
Tennessee makes its first appearance among the states with the most jobs gained in this series, adding over 32,000 new jobs last month. Texas topped the list at nearly 83,000 jobs, with Florida in third at nearly 31,000 jobs.
Tennessee also claimed the largest percentage job increase as well, with a 1% boost to the state payrolls, followed by Montana at plus 0.9%. Texas was not far behind at plus 0.6%, tying Oklahoma and providing context to the state’s impressive raw job figures and sizable state population.
Over the year, almost every state saw a net increase in total jobs as the economy continued pushing toward recouping pandemic-related losses, with Nevada, Texas, and Georgia securing the largest increases by percentage (6.6%, 6.2%, and 5.4%, respectively).
The job market performance and unemployment rate continue to exceed expectations; however, when that performance is only marginally better than the month before, this may say more about low expectations than strength of performance.
Still, marginally better is still marginally better than marginally worse, and any positive trend is worth noting–especially in the face of rising interest rates and lingering supply chain problems.
So, how long can the mass of economic momentum hold its crest? How low will it dip and rebound as it overcorrects toward equilibrium?
Looking for more exclusive content? Check out the Mployer Advisor blog, or review last month's market employment summary here.
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