Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from December 2023 that was published in January 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Payroll figures nationwide held steady last month, as did the unemployment rate average at 3.7% for the second month in a row.
Most of the states were similarly unchanged from the month prior, with 34 states plus Washington DC seeing no significant month-to-month movement in their unemployment rate.
At the same time however, 15 states saw an unemployment rate increase while only 1 state saw its unemployment rate decrease last month - Minnesota at minus 0.2%.
In total, 16 states currently have a lower unemployment rate than the US average of 3.7%, while 5 states plus Washington DC have an unemployment rate above the national average.
One year ago the national unemployment rate was at 3.5% (one month before hitting a 50-year record low), and in the time since the rate has remained fairly balanced, with 18 states plus Washington DC registering an unemployment rate increases and 15 states reporting unemployment a rate decreases over the past 12 months, with the other 17 states essentially remaining stable.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for January 2024.
Nevada had the highest unemployment rate for most of 2023 and that trend has continued in the latest report with Nevada recording an unemployment rate of 5.4%, followed by Washington DC and California at 5.1% each.
The only other states with unemployment rates above the national average are Illinois, New Jersey, and New York.
In total, however, 15 states saw their unemployment rates increase last month - plus 0.3% increases for Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 0.2% increases for Alabama, California, Connecticut, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, and Washington state, and 0.1% increases for Arkansas, Florida, Maryland, Virginia,
There are 18 states that have seen their unemployment rates increase over the last 12 months, led by New Jersey at plus 1.5%, followed by California at plus 1.0% and Alaska at plus 0.8%.
Maryland retained the top spot on the list of states with the lowest unemployment rates for the 5th month in a row - this time joined by North Dakota at 1.9% unemployment each.
South Dakota wasn’t far behind at 2.0%, followed by Vermont at 2.2% and Nebraska at 2.3%.
Minnesota was the only state that recorded a decrease in unemployment over the month at minus 0.2%, over the course of the last year, however, 15 states in total ave seen their unemployment rates go down, led by Maryland and Oregon at minus 1.1% each.
No states saw statistically significant job losses last month/year.
No states saw statistically significant job gains last month, although 30 states did see their in-state payroll entries increase over the last year.Of those 30 states, Nevada has seen the largest percentage increase (3.8%), followed by Idaho and South Dakota at plus 3.0% each, whereas Texas, California, and Florda had the largest net number of job additions over the year, at about 370, 212, and 240 thousand net job increase, respectively.
This month’s report was pulled from the last data of 2023 - a year that began with an unseasonably warm economically active January coupled with the lowest national unemployment since the 1960s.
In a year during which most economists had predicted recession and interest rates remain the highest they’ve been in decades, it is fairly remarkable that instead, nearly 3 million jobs were added over the course of 2023 and inflation has fallen below the 30 year average.
With the markets currently hitting all time highs and the Federal Reserve expected to begin cutting interest rates in the next few months, the prospects for the coming certainly look better at the outset of this year than they did at this point last year.
While a significant economic downturn in the next 12 months is still very possible, of course, the balance has tipped in favor of that possibility being less likely than more likely at this point.
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