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Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from January 2023 that was published in March 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Because February is a short month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics often doesn’t get around to compiling, analyzing, and releasing January’s economic data until March - as is the case here, with this information finally going public earlier this week.
The corresponding national unemployment data covering the same time frame put the US unemployment rate average at 3.7%, though it has since increased by two–tenths of a point, whereas the initially reported job additions for January were estimated at about 330 thousand, although that figure has subsequently been revised to about 290 thousand.
Given the unemployment stability in the US average in January, it is no surprise that the vast majority of states showed no meaningful change in unemployment, with 44 states in total essentially holding steady over the month.
While only a small percentage of states seeing any significant change in unemployment, it is worth noting that twice as many of those states saw an unemployment increase (4) compared to states that saw a net reduction in unemployment (2), which was perhaps a nod to the two-tenths of a point increase in national unemployment we now know was reported in February’s data.
Despite the significant (albeit later downwardly-revised) number of job additions, those gains were only split between 8 states, while the remaining 42 states and Washington DC all saw no meaningful change in their payroll figures.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for February 2024.
As with last month (and most of last year), Nevada remains the state with the highest unemployment rate. That said, Nevada's rate is down one-tenth of a point month-to-month, decreasing from 5.4% to 5.3%, so it is moving in a positive direction.
California, which is up a tenth of a point from last month, was not far behind Nevada at 5.2%, and Washington DC was the only other ‘state’ at 5% unemployment or higher, with DC recording a net decrease in unemployment of a tenth of a point over the month.
Besides California, the only other states that saw meaningful increases in their unemployment rates were Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Washington, which each saw their unemployment rates go up by 0.2%
Notably, as of this latest report, half of all states recorded a net increase in their unemployment rates over the last 12 months, which is up from the 18 states who claimed the same as of the previous month’s reporting. New Jersey and Maine are at the top of that list at plus 0.9%, followed by Connecticut and Montana at plus 0.8%.
North and South Dakota stand together as the two states with the lowest unemployment rates during January at 1.9% and 2.1% unemployment, respectively.
Following the Dakotas, Maryland and Vermont each recorded an unemployment rate of 2.3% while Nebraska wasn’t far behind that mark at 2.5%.
Massachusetts and Wisconsin were the only states that saw a decrease in unemployment during the data collection period - each dropping about two-tenths of a percentage point.
Over the 12 months prior to the latest reporting period, 6 states recorded a net decrease in their unemployment rate, led by Massachusetts and Wyoming at minus 0.5%, followed by Pennsylvania and Mississippi at minus 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, and lastly Kansas and Texas at minus 0.2% unemployment on the year.
No states saw statistically significant job losses last month/year.
8 states saw a net increase in jobs over the course of January. The largest percentage increases went to New York and Vermont at plus 0.6%, followed by Massachusetts and New Jersey at plus 0.5%, and Connecticut, Florida, and South Carolina at plus 0.4% each.
In terms of the raw number of payroll additions, New York edged out California at plus 59 thousand to plus 58 thousand, followed by Florida which added 38 thousand new jobs.
Over the 12 months prior to January 2024, 27 states saw statistically significant increases to their jobs numbers while the remainder were essentially unchanged.
The states with the largest percentage increase in jobs over the year were Nevada at plus 3.8%, followed by Alaska and South Carolina each at 3%, while the states with the largest number of job additions in terms of raw numbers were Texas, Florida, and California, which added about a quarter of a million jobs apiece.
It’s always interesting to take a look back at these delayed economic releases in light of the additional data that has been made available in the time since the data supporting this current report was collected.
Are there some indicators in this data set that might’ve supported a hypothesis that the following month was going to see a small jump in national unemployment? Perhaps.
That said, since it remains to be seen whether or not the employment data in the report released earlier this month will be a brief deviation from the mean or the beginning of a new trend, there is little to be gained at this point from determining just how predictive the data from the start of the year will ultimately prove to be.
In a few weeks when March’s data is released, the overall picture of the labor market and the economy in general will be that much clearer, and in the meantime at the end of next week we’ll have the opportunity to look at the market data collected in February, so the wait to get a better understanding of how the latest unemployment uptick is being absorbed among states won’t be long either.
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