The Employment Situation for November 2023

Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from October 2023 that was published in November 2023. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

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US unemployment ticked up by one-tenth of a point to 3.9%, which is the highest the national average has been since February of 2022, and marks 21 months in a row that the US has maintained unemployment levels below 4%.

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Over the course of the last month, US employers added 150 thousand new jobs to their payrolls - just under the 157 thousand jobs that economists had been predicting - which is a significant step down from the month before when 297 thousand additional payroll entries were recorded.

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That said, given that the initial figures in last month’s report were more than double what economists had forecast, and given that even the revised 297 thousand jobs exceeds projections by more than 75%, some overcorrection might reasonably have been expected this month, in which case the degree of overcorrection seen here is quite small compared to the initial swing.

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The labor force participation rate fell by one-tenth of a point to 62.7% - which still remains slightly above the 62.6% figures posted in June and July of this year, and is substantially higher than 12 months ago at 62.2%.

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The healthcare industry saw the largest number of new jobs, adding 58 thousand new positions, which is just above the 53 thousand that the healthcare industry has been averaging per month over the last year. 

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The government sector added about 50 thousand jobs as well, followed by the construction, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance industries, which added about 20 thousand jobs each. 

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That said, although the raw number of new jobs added was similar across these industries, they are not all trending in the same direction, with government showing steady growth, construction trending slightly up, social assistance trending slightly down, and leisure and hospitality way under the more than 50 thousand new jobs that it had been averaging over the past 12 months. 

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Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by about 12 thousand jobs while the information sector lost about 9 thousand jobs.

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Average pay was up 7 cents last month to $34 per hour, which is up 4.1% on the year, while the average workweek fell by one-tenth of an hour to 34.3 hours per week.

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Mployer's Take

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With the job figures this month just below forecasts and the previous two months of data being revised downward by 100 thousand jobs collectively, the case gets stronger for the oft-discussed soft economic landing that quells inflation without causing recession.

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When the Federal Reserve met a few days ago and chose to keep interest rates where they are for the time being, these are the kinds of jobs figures they were hoping to see and will bolster the likelihood that no further rate increases will be handed down this year. 

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Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this jobs report, however, is the 35 thousand jobs that were lost in the manufacturing industry. About 33 thousand of those jobs were attributable to the automotive manufacturing sector, however, and with that strike having now been resolved, expect those manufacturing jobs figures to bounce back in next month’s employment report. 

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