Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from October 2022 that was published in November 2022. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

U.S. employers added 261k jobs last month, nearly matching the 263k jobs that were initially reported the month before (that have been subsequently updated to 315k).  

Although the previous two jobs reports exceeded expectations, the latest figures did so by a greater margin, beating the Dow Jones estimate of just over 200k by nearly 30% compared to ~26% a month earlier.  

As has been the case in recent months, stability was the underlying theme with little change across most of the economic metrics and demographic breakdowns featured in the report. Further, the newly added jobs were well-distributed, with no industry registering a net loss over the period.

The healthcare industry saw the largest increase in jobs, adding more than 50k last month, driven by over 30k new payroll entries in ambulatory services, as well as more than 20k new jobs split between hospitals and residential care facilities.  

Professional and technical services did nearly as well, adding about 43k new jobs, followed by the leisure and hospitality industry that added about 35k. Also, manufacturers and the social assistance industries added about 30k and 20k jobs, respectively.  

Additionally, the financial services sector had a small but positive net increase in jobs, adding about 3k employees. Meanwhile, employment figures in mining, construction, government, information services, and retail remained essentially unchanged from the month before.

Average hourly pay, which is up by almost 5% on the year, rose by 0.4% last month, climbing from $32.46 to $32.58 per hour. What’s more, the average workweek length remained constant at 34.5 hours for the fifth consecutive month.  

Mployer Advisor’s Take:  

Even with this kind of expectation-exceeding performance, it’s worth noting that these newly added jobs represent the slowest rate of job growth since December 2020.

Job growth remains consistent and, with about two job openings for every available worker, that dynamic isn’t expected to shift dramatically any time soon, but the trendline has clearly been leveling for some time now.

As the unemployment rate drops and the job market approaches full employment, a leveling of the job growth trend is not only expected, but also inevitable. Of course, the Federal Reserve putting its thumb on the scale should only hasten that trend-flattening, too.

In this environment, the question becomes whether interest rates and hiring needs have reached an equilibrium that can be maintained, or if job growth could turn negative as has been the case during comparable periods when the economy stagnated in the past.  

If the former case can be achieved, the Federal Reserve may yet pull off its oft-touted soft landing, whereby any negative economic disruptions are minimized and shortened in timespan (despite criticism regarding such a prescription).

On the other hand, if the latter case proves true, we may see a quite different job market in a year than we do today.  

As always, we will keep you posted as more data becomes available in the months ahead.  

Eager for more exclusive content? Check out the Mployer Advisor blog, or review last month’s employment numbers here.  

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