The Employment Situation for March 2024

Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from February 2024 that was published in March 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

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US employers added 275 thousand jobs last month, and while the unemployment rate rose only slightly from 3.7% to 3.9%, it is nonetheless the highest it has been since February of 2022.

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The 275 thousand new jobs that were added last month surpassed the approximately 200 thousand new jobs economists were predicting, and also represents an increase of 20% over the month before which posted about 229 thousand new jobs. 

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That said, those 229 thousand new jobs reported in February were a downward reduction of about 35% from the 353 thousand jobs that had initially been reported. January’s figures were also revised downward this month by about 13% from 333 thousand to 290 thousand.

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The number of permanent job losers increased by about 10% over the month to about 1.7 million, which is up about 23% in total over the last year, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5% for the third consecutive month.

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As for job growth, the healthcare industry led the field last month with the addition of 66 thousand new jobs, which is just above pace for the 58 thousand new jobs the healthcare industry has added on average over each of the last 12 months.

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The government sector added about 52 thousand new jobs, followed by 42 thousand new jobs in food services and drinking establishments, which saw their first substantial increase in months after making massive recovery gains for much of the last 2 years.

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The transportation and warehousing, social assistance, construction, and retail industries each added in the neighborhood of 20 thousand jobs, while there was little noteworthy change in payroll figures for the mining, oil, natural gas, wholesale, manufacturing, financial activities, personal services, business services, and information industries.

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The average workweek increased by an adjusted tenth of an hour to 34.3 hours per week, which is down slightly from 12 months ago when the average was 34.5 hours weekly and represents a rare upward break from the general downward trend in average private hours worked per week.

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Average hourly earnings rose by an adjusted 5 cents to $34.57, which is a noteworthy slowdown from the previously established pace of increasing wages, which are up 4.3% over the past 12 months.

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Mployer Advisor’s Take

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The latest jobs report brought some mixed messages, with unemployment ticking up but job additions once again exceeding expectations.

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While some headlines will certainly highlight the two-tenths of a point increase in the unemployment rate, the more significant story for the time being remains the 2 plus years during which unemployment has held steady below 4%. 

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On the spectrum between inflation and recession is a sweet spot in the middle that is akin to the ‘soft landing’ that the Federal Reserve has been steering the economy toward for the last couple of years. 

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While this most recent economic report is probably a small step away from inflation, that also means it’s a small step toward recession, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. 

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A step away from inflation and toward recession doesn’t mean that recession is imminent or even inevitable - boom and bust cycle notwithstanding. That same step could also be re-centering the economy in the middle of that sweet spot.

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The operative questions become how long can the economy hover in the middle of that spectrum in between additional steps toward recession, and how small or large will those next steps toward recession be. If the economy and job market can come anywhere close to matching the stability and consistency they’ve shown over the past couple of years, then it may be quite a while yet before major economic downturn becomes an imminent concern.

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