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Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from November 2024 that was published in December 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The national unemployment rate average ticked up one-tenth of a point to 4.2% last month as US employers added 227 thousand jobs, outpacing the approximate 200 thousand jobs that economists were predicting.
The number of unemployed people held comparably steady at about 7.1 million, as well, with about 1.7 million (17%) qualifying as long-term unemployed. The number of unemployed people has risen by around 800 thousand over the last 12 months, while the number of long-term unemployed has risen by about 500 thousand over the same time period.
Those figures, however, do not account for the nearly 5.5 million people who are not counted as unemployed because they have not been actively looking for work in the past 4 weeks.
Also, it’s worth noting that about 4.5 million people are currently employed part time for economic reasons, which is up from about 4 million people who fell into that category a year ago.
Altogether, the figures show general resilience and a strong rebound from last month’s hurricane and strike-induced dip, but the full economic picture is not entirely sunny, and evidence of some softening in the labor market persists.
That said, there’s not much of said evidence to be found in the jobs numbers, however, with 227 net new payroll entries over the month, but it could be argued that the concentration of new jobs across a relatively few industries is less than ideal.
For example, the healthcare industry and leisure & hospitality industry each added about 54 thousand net jobs, which collectively account for nearly half of the total job additions last month. Further, both the healthcare and leisure & hospitality job figures last month were essentially on par with their monthly averages, meaning that last month’s payroll additions were essentially right on the trendline.
Employment figures in government and transportation equipment manufacturing each rose by about a little over 30 thousand jobs, while the social assistance industry saw a net addition of about 20 thousand jobs.
There was little to no noteworthy change in the other industries with the exception of the retail industry which saw a net loss of nearly 30 thousand jobs over the course of November.
Average hourly pay continued its general upward trend climbing 13 cents to $35.61 per hour while the average workweek climbed one-tenth of an hour to 34.3 hours per week.
Average hourly pay is up 4% over the last 12 months.
In light of this most recent batch of economic data, last month’s report of only 12 thousand new jobs looks more like an outlier than evidence of a rapid cooling in the job market.
Although the upward revision to last month’s numbers of about 36 thousand jobs could look huge by some measures (plus 200% upward revision) or fairly insignificant by others (post-revision new payroll entries in October were still only about 25% of the average 186 thousand new jobs added each month over the last 12), the reality is that last month’s performance reflected hurricane and strike related data aberrations more than changing macroeconomic conditions.
Despite this positive jobs report, markets have not been dissuaded from believing another interest rate cut is likely in store when Federal Reserve leadership convenes again later this month.
Still, the outlook is not entirely positive across the board, with a decreasing number in job postings across nearly every industry, for example, indicating the job market is expected to continue cooling - which is in part why continued rate cuts are forecast.
What likely matters more at the moment than the bigger picture environmental factors that are shaping the current economic trends, however, are the political and regulatory factors that will begin impacting the labor market and US/world economies in general when control of the White House and US senate changes hands in the new year.
Even with Republicans in control of all 3 branches of the federal government, there remains a great deal of uncertainty both about which proposals they will pursue and prioritize, many of which can have significant impacts to the economy and labor force (e.g. tariffs, taxes, collective bargaining legislation).
That lack of clarity will begin coming into focus in 2025.
Check out the Mployer blog here.
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